Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.007
- 41.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- -4.76CPOE+1.47
- 38.3%Third-down rate44.6%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.79Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/47 | 325 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| George Winn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 7 | 15 | 151 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 8 | 12 | 74 | 1 |
| Corey Fuller | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| George Winn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/27 | 228 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.05