2014 · Week 8

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

22·21

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

-0.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.006EPA / play+0.007
  • 41.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.161
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -4.76CPOE+1.47
  • 38.3%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.87
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3ATL @ DET6–20DET
2021 · W16DET @ ATL16–20ATL
2020 · W7DET @ ATL23–22DET
2017 · W3ATL @ DET30–26ATL
2012 · W16ATL @ DET31–18ATL
2011 · W7ATL @ DET23–16ATL
2008 · W1DET @ ATL21–34ATL
2006 · W9ATL @ DET14–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001080Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 9:25620Punt0–7
ATLQ1 6:19846Touchdown0–14
DETQ1 2:531139Punt0–14
ATLQ2 12:4032Punt0–14
DETQ2 11:103-1Punt0–14
ATLQ2 10:021374Touchdown0–21
DETQ2 3:45945Turnover0–21
ATLQ2 1:1429End of half0–21
DETQ3 15:001476Field goal3–21
ATLQ3 7:543-4Punt3–21
DETQ3 6:22569Touchdown10–21
ATLQ3 4:38832Turnover10–21
DETQ3 0:1035Field goal13–21
ATLQ4 14:10512Punt13–21
DETQ4 11:251369Touchdown19–21
ATLQ4 3:56840Punt19–21
DETQ4 1:38763Field goal22–21

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/4732521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell14392.80
Matthew Stafford393.00
Theo Riddick351.70
George Winn122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate7151511
Theo Riddick812741
Corey Fuller36430
Jeremy Ross33310
Joique Bell23220
Ryan Broyles1240
Kellen Davis0200
George Winn0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/2722821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson18603.31
Matt Ryan166.00
Antone Smith351.70
Devonta Freeman351.70
Jacquizz Rodgers122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White56660
Julio Jones46580
Harry Douglas35420
Jacquizz Rodgers33280
Levine Toilolo22260
Devonta Freeman1171
Bear Pascoe1111
Patrick DiMarco1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.05