Closing spread
ATL -7.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play-0.076
- 42.1%Success rate41.2%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.028
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.162
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.05CPOE+0.85
- 34.7%Third-down rate38.5%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.73Points / drive1.58
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Boyle | 24/34 | 187 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 11 | 91 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 18/24 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 6 | 102 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.37
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.11