2021 · Week 16

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Tim Boyle

16·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -7.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.061EPA / play-0.076
  • 42.1%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.028
  • -0.123EPA / rush-0.162
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.05CPOE+0.85
  • 34.7%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.58
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3ATL @ DET6–20DET
2020 · W7DET @ ATL23–22DET
2017 · W3ATL @ DET30–26ATL
2014 · W8DET @ ATL22–21DET
2012 · W16ATL @ DET31–18ATL
2011 · W7ATL @ DET23–16ATL
2008 · W1DET @ ATL21–34ATL
2006 · W9ATL @ DET14–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0067Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:591249Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 3:2534Punt3–0
DETQ1 1:4935Punt3–0
ATLQ1 0:17954Touchdown3–7
DETQ2 10:531190Touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 3:44643Field goal10–10
DETQ2 1:04622Turnover on downs10–10
DETQ3 15:0037Punt10–10
ATLQ3 13:30869Field goal10–13
DETQ3 10:111166Field goal13–13
ATLQ3 3:061071Touchdown13–20
DETQ4 13:041671Field goal16–20
ATLQ4 2:3837Turnover16–20
DETQ4 2:18628Turnover16–20
ATLQ4 0:3300End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Boyle24/3418711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams19774.10
Craig Reynolds11292.60
Amon-Ra St. Brown2199.50
Kalif Raymond155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown911911
Josh Reynolds27360
Craig Reynolds34220
KhaDarel Hodge11210
Tom Kennedy22160
Kalif Raymond35120
Brock Wright3340

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan18/2421510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis7284.00
Cordarrelle Patterson7142.01
Matt Ryan451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts661020
Russell Gage45390
Olamide Zaccheaus24320
Hayden Hurst22211
Marvin Hall11100
Mike Davis1170
Christian Blake1150
Cordarrelle Patterson12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.37
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.11