Closing spread
DET -3
Total
41
Model margin
+8.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
5.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play+0.066
- 36.3%Success rate43.0%
- -0.203EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.021
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.9%
- -3.61CPOE+0.99
- 28.7%Third-down rate43.3%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.21Points / drive2.04
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 13:33 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 9:39 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DET | Q1 7:33 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q1 6:31 | 6 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| DET | Q1 3:20 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–21 |
| ATL | Q2 14:20 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–21 |
| DET | Q2 11:02 | 14 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| ATL | Q2 4:06 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–21 |
| DET | Q2 2:38 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–21 |
| ATL | Q2 1:32 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–21 |
| DET | Q2 0:55 | 3 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| ATL | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–21 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| ATL | Q3 12:10 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| DET | Q3 9:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ATL | Q3 8:06 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| DET | Q3 5:57 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| ATL | Q3 1:40 | 11 | 93 | Field goal | 21–34 |
| DET | Q4 10:23 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 21–34 |
| ATL | Q4 5:53 | 8 | 58 | End of half | 21–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 24/33 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 9/13 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 22 | 220 | 10.0 | 2 |
| Jerious Norwood | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
5.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.61