Closing spread
DET -3
Total
41
Model margin
+8.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
5.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play+0.066
- 36.3%Success rate43.0%
- -0.203EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.021
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.9%
- -3.61CPOE+0.99
- 28.7%Third-down rate43.3%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.21Points / drive2.04
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 24/33 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 9/13 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 22 | 220 | 10.0 | 2 |
| Jerious Norwood | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
5.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.61