2020 · Week 7

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

23·22

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

54

Model margin

+3.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.042
  • 45.5%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.27CPOE+1.23
  • 41.6%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.14Points / drive2.28
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3ATL @ DET6–20DET
2021 · W16DET @ ATL16–20ATL
2017 · W3ATL @ DET30–26ATL
2014 · W8DET @ ATL22–21DET
2012 · W16ATL @ DET31–18ATL
2011 · W7ATL @ DET23–16ATL
2008 · W1DET @ ATL21–34ATL
2006 · W9ATL @ DET14–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:3139Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:4437Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:551067Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 4:1632Punt7–0
DETQ1 3:2031Punt7–0
ATLQ1 1:431679Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 10:55864Turnover on downs7–7
ATLQ2 6:171498Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 0:29348Field goal10–14
DETQ3 15:001163Field goal13–14
ATLQ3 7:34512Punt13–14
DETQ3 4:4734Punt13–14
ATLQ3 3:501496Turnover on downs13–14
DETQ4 11:57954Missed field goal13–14
ATLQ4 7:3240Turnover13–14
DETQ4 5:2931Field goal16–14
ATLQ4 3:16976Touchdown16–22
DETQ4 1:04575Touchdown23–22

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/3634010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson11292.60
D'Andre Swift9273.01
Matthew Stafford188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay671140
Marvin Jones56800
Danny Amendola34620
T.J. Hockenson56591
D'Andre Swift45210
Isaac Nauta1130
Adrian Peterson1110
Marvin Hall0100
Jamal Agnew0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan31/4233810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley23632.72
Brian Hill231.50
Olamide Zaccheaus100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones89970
Calvin Ridley57691
Hayden Hurst67680
Russell Gage67540
Brian Hill33270
Todd Gurley23190
Brandon Powell1240
Luke Stocker0100
Ito Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.72