Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
54
Model margin
+3.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.042
- 45.5%Success rate44.3%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.27CPOE+1.23
- 41.6%Third-down rate43.8%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.14Points / drive2.28
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/36 | 340 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 7 | 114 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Isaac Nauta | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 31/42 | 338 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 23 | 63 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 8 | 9 | 97 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 6 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.72