Closing spread
DET -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.058
- 41.5%Success rate45.9%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.014
- 8.7%Explosive rate11.2%
- -3.52CPOE+1.34
- 40.2%Third-down rate42.4%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.58Points / drive2.29
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 21/38 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 5 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Drake London | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/33 | 243 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 12 | 102 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 8 | 11 | 84 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.91