2023 · Week 3

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

6·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapLions
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.058
  • 41.5%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.014
  • 8.7%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -3.52CPOE+1.34
  • 40.2%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.58Points / drive2.29
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W16DET @ ATL16–20ATL
2020 · W7DET @ ATL23–22DET
2017 · W3ATL @ DET30–26ATL
2014 · W8DET @ ATL22–21DET
2012 · W16ATL @ DET31–18ATL
2011 · W7ATL @ DET23–16ATL
2008 · W1DET @ ATL21–34ATL
2006 · W9ATL @ DET14–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DET
ATLQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:2334Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:50613Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:171163Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 1:46945Field goal3–3
DETQ2 11:32570Touchdown3–10
ATLQ2 10:0531Punt3–10
DETQ2 9:021473Field goal3–13
ATLQ2 1:533-4Punt3–13
DETQ2 0:51420Punt3–13
ATLQ2 0:19421End of half3–13
DETQ3 15:0039Punt3–13
ATLQ3 12:59738Missed field goal3–13
DETQ3 8:25731Punt3–13
ATLQ3 5:1754Punt3–13
DETQ3 3:39413Punt3–13
ATLQ3 1:503-7Punt3–13
DETQ3 0:5430Turnover3–13
ATLQ4 15:0046Turnover on downs3–13
DETQ4 13:42762Touchdown3–20
ATLQ4 9:501770Field goal6–20
DETQ4 4:19616Punt6–20
ATLQ4 2:173-12Turnover6–20
DETQ4 1:5900End of half6–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder21/3820100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson10333.30
Tyler Allgeier7121.70
Desmond Ridder231.50
Kyle Pitts1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts59410
Jonnu Smith58370
Drake London26310
Bijan Robinson46270
Mack Hollins14230
Tyler Allgeier23170
KhaDarel Hodge11150
MyCole Pruitt11100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/3324311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs17804.70
Craig Reynolds4153.80
Bam Knight3134.30
Amon-Ra St. Brown144.00
Jared Goff530.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown9121020
Sam LaPorta811841
Kalif Raymond46550
Jahmyr Gibbs1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.91