Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
50
Model margin
-0.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.004
- 46.4%Success rate45.2%
- +0.234EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.131
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- +5.71CPOE-2.29
- 44.9%Third-down rate41.4%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 2.31Points / drive1.65
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/32 | 279 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 10 | 153 | 2 |
| Julio Jones | 7 | 11 | 71 | 1 |
| Michael Turner | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 37/56 | 443 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Leshoure | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 11 | 16 | 225 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 9 | 12 | 73 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Shaun Chapas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.88