2012 · Week 16

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

31·18

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

50

Model margin

-0.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapLions
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.004
  • 46.4%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.234EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.131
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +5.71CPOE-2.29
  • 44.9%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.65
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3ATL @ DET6–20DET
2021 · W16DET @ ATL16–20ATL
2020 · W7DET @ ATL23–22DET
2017 · W3ATL @ DET30–26ATL
2014 · W8DET @ ATL22–21DET
2011 · W7ATL @ DET23–16ATL
2008 · W1DET @ ATL21–34ATL
2006 · W9ATL @ DET14–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DET
DETQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:30520Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:11454Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 8:12464Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 5:501058Field goal7–3
ATLQ1 0:131090Touchdown14–3
DETQ2 9:54530Punt14–3
ATLQ2 7:073-3Punt14–3
DETQ2 5:26312Turnover14–3
ATLQ2 4:04740Touchdown21–3
DETQ2 1:17665Field goal21–6
ATLQ2 0:0200End of half21–6
ATLQ3 15:003-1Punt21–6
DETQ3 13:351055Touchdown21–13
ATLQ3 6:59518Punt21–13
DETQ3 5:211183Field goal21–16
ATLQ4 13:261178Touchdown28–16
DETQ4 7:1210Turnover28–16
ATLQ4 7:03740Field goal31–16
DETQ4 3:051393Turnover on downs31–18
ATLQ4 1:281-2Safety31–18
DETQ4 1:211263End of half31–18

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan25/3227940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner13413.20
Matt Ryan22512.50
Jacquizz Rodgers6142.30
Julio Jones1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White8101532
Julio Jones711711
Michael Turner44160
Jacquizz Rodgers11110
Tony Gonzalez1290
Harry Douglas2260
Michael Palmer1111

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford37/5644301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mikel Leshoure15463.11
Stefan Logan11313.00
Joique Bell4102.50
Mike Thomas188.00
Matthew Stafford122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson11162250
Joique Bell912730
Tony Scheffler46410
Will Heller47340
Kris Durham25320
Mikel Leshoure34200
Brian Robiskie1150
Mike Thomas1150
Kevin Smith1140
Stefan Logan1140
Shaun Chapas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.88