Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:12 | 3 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:58 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 9:15 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:24 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 7:07 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:53 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 1:39 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:14 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 9:34 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 8:21 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 5:30 | 11 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:32 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 16–7 |
| LV | Q3 13:38 | 1 | -2 | Safety | 16–7 |
| MIA | Q3 13:33 | 7 | 22 | Missed field goal | 16–7 |
| LV | Q3 10:10 | 11 | 58 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| MIA | Q3 5:49 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 23–14 |
| LV | Q3 1:48 | 8 | 27 | Touchdown | 23–21 |
| MIA | Q4 14:01 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 23–21 |
| LV | Q4 9:57 | 8 | 45 | Punt | 23–21 |
| MIA | Q4 6:20 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 30–21 |
| LV | Q4 3:50 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 30–21 |
| MIA | Q4 3:25 | 1 | 5 | Turnover | 30–21 |
| LV | Q4 3:18 | 2 | -6 | Turnover | 30–21 |
| MIA | Q4 2:56 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 33–21 |
| LV | Q4 1:10 | 4 | 27 | End of half | 33–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 18/31 | 261 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.