Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 18/31 | 261 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.