Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.156
- 42.4%Success rate49.3%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.205
- -0.026EPA / rush+0.100
- 9.0%Explosive rate11.2%
- 39.9%Third-down rate40.1%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
- 1.87Points / drive2.39
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed-0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 29/53 | 344 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 26 | 151 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/37 | 249 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 31 | 110 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.73