Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.203
- 40.7%Success rate34.0%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.265
- -0.308EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- 38.3%Third-down rate25.0%
- 42.5%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 1.36Points / drive0.94
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/45 | 354 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/24 | 185 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.00