Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.203
- 40.7%Success rate34.0%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.265
- -0.308EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- 38.3%Third-down rate25.0%
- 42.5%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 1.36Points / drive0.94
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:53 | 15 | 79 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 1:02 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q2 12:38 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 10:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q2 8:36 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 5:11 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 1:58 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 0:36 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| SF | Q3 12:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| ARI | Q3 11:50 | 9 | 38 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| SF | Q3 7:21 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 9–7 |
| ARI | Q3 4:56 | 7 | 47 | Punt | 9–7 |
| SF | Q3 1:49 | 3 | -4 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| ARI | Q3 0:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 9–10 |
| SF | Q4 13:28 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 9–10 |
| ARI | Q4 11:44 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 9–10 |
| SF | Q4 11:36 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 9–10 |
| ARI | Q4 11:28 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| SF | Q4 10:45 | 7 | 33 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q4 7:14 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 17–10 |
| SF | Q4 2:14 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q4 1:42 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/45 | 354 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/24 | 185 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.00