Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
41
Model margin
+4.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.041
- 40.5%Success rate42.4%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- 41.9%Third-down rate39.9%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.55Points / drive1.87
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:57 | 12 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 6:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 2:01 | 14 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q2 10:00 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q2 8:59 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q2 8:06 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q2 5:56 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q2 1:58 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYG | Q2 0:29 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 1 | -5 | Opp touchdown | 0–17 |
| DAL | Q3 14:48 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| NYG | Q3 10:03 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–17 |
| DAL | Q3 9:00 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 3–17 |
| NYG | Q3 5:29 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 9–17 |
| DAL | Q3 3:57 | 1 | 7 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NYG | Q3 3:52 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q3 2:31 | 6 | 10 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| NYG | Q3 0:04 | 10 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q4 12:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NYG | Q4 10:39 | 9 | 50 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q4 5:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NYG | Q4 4:14 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q4 2:38 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| NYG | Q4 1:47 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q4 1:22 | 8 | 52 | End of half | 10–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/39 | 146 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 23 | 74 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/31 | 152 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 30 | 115 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.11