Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
41
Model margin
+4.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.041
- 40.5%Success rate42.4%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- 41.9%Third-down rate39.9%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.55Points / drive1.87
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/39 | 146 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 23 | 74 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/31 | 152 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 30 | 115 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.11