Closing spread
PK
Total
47
Model margin
+1.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play+0.097
- 44.7%Success rate45.7%
- +0.109EPA / dropback+0.143
- +0.067EPA / rush+0.042
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate43.7%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.97Points / drive2.01
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/29 | 276 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bradlee Van Pelt | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/23 | 253 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 30 | 140 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Trent Green | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.63