2005 · Week 13

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

15·16

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 47°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

37

Model margin

+5.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRavens
  • -0.099EPA / play-0.109
  • 40.0%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.098EPA / rush-0.179
  • 6.2%Explosive rate7.2%
  • 34.0%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.20
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.2%
  • +0.119EPA / play allowed-0.088

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BAL
BALQ1 15:00415Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 12:433-15Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:37417Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:02517Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:263-3Punt0–0
HOUQ1 5:44513Field goal3–0
BALQ1 3:431665Touchdown3–7
BALQ2 13:0100Touchdown3–7
HOUQ2 13:0100Punt3–7
HOUQ2 13:0137Punt3–7
HOUQ2 11:17112Punt3–7
HOUQ2 10:4929Punt3–7
HOUQ2 9:4914Punt3–7
HOUQ2 9:17410Punt3–7
BALQ2 7:332-1Punt3–7
BALQ2 6:54112Punt3–7
BALQ2 6:2139Punt3–7
BALQ2 4:5700Punt3–7
HOUQ2 4:4224Field goal3–7
HOUQ2 3:221289Field goal6–7
BALQ2 0:0400End of half6–7
HOUQ3 15:0038Punt6–7
BALQ3 13:29527Punt6–7
HOUQ3 11:10936Punt6–7
BALQ3 6:374-9Punt6–7
BALQ3 4:5032Turnover6–7
HOUQ3 3:571035Field goal9–7
BALQ4 14:30619Punt9–7
HOUQ4 11:5132Punt9–7
BALQ4 10:58514Punt9–7
HOUQ4 8:2734Opp touchdown9–13
HOUQ4 7:16855Field goal12–13
BALQ4 3:313-5Punt12–13
HOUQ4 2:4238Field goal15–13
BALQ4 1:08577Field goal15–16
HOUQ4 0:0600End of half15–16

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr17/3716501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Domanick Williams291555.30
David Carr382.70
Jonathan Wells221.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller17/3319800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chester Taylor11403.60
Jamal Lewis8172.10
Kyle Boller3113.71
Mark Clayton155.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.96