Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
37
Model margin
+5.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.109
- 40.0%Success rate38.7%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.098EPA / rush-0.179
- 6.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- 34.0%Third-down rate39.5%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.30Points / drive1.20
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.119EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/37 | 165 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 29 | 155 | 5.3 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 17/33 | 198 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.96