2025 · Week 5

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

44·10

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Cooper Rush

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRavens
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.037
  • 41.7%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.149EPA / rush+0.038
  • 7.2%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -1.68CPOE+2.86
  • 37.4%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.30
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU
2013 · W3HOU @ BAL9–30BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BAL
HOUQ1 15:001067Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 9:241271Field goal7–3
HOUQ1 1:581047Field goal10–3
BALQ2 11:183-14Punt10–3
HOUQ2 9:22751Touchdown17–3
BALQ2 5:3636Punt17–3
HOUQ2 4:001063Touchdown24–3
BALQ2 0:28329Missed field goal24–3
BALQ3 15:00412Turnover24–3
HOUQ3 12:49338Touchdown31–3
BALQ3 11:3338Punt31–3
HOUQ3 9:24632Field goal34–3
BALQ3 5:53670Touchdown34–10
HOUQ3 2:41763Touchdown41–10
BALQ4 13:48310Turnover41–10
HOUQ4 12:1035Field goal44–10
BALQ4 10:3033Punt44–10
HOUQ4 8:5944Punt44–10
BALQ4 7:27312Turnover44–10
HOUQ4 6:07849End of half44–10

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud23/2724440
Davis Mills2/42300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb11615.51
C.J. Stroud13030.00
Woody Marks7243.40
Dameon Pierce7213.00
British Brooks2157.50
Nico Collins188.00
Jaylin Noel155.00
Davis Mills331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk44640
Dalton Schultz56600
Nico Collins45521
Jayden Higgins44320
Brenden Bates22230
Xavier Hutchinson33182
Jaylin Noel23131
Harrison Bryant1250
Nick Chubb0100
Woody Marks0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush14/2017903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry15332.21
Keaton Mitchell382.70
Justice Hill133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers55720
DeAndre Hopkins22460
Mark Andrews23220
Isaiah Likely11120
Charlie Kolar11100
Justice Hill1290
Keaton Mitchell1150
Zaire Mitchell-Paden1130
Derrick Henry0100
Rashod Bateman0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.49