Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.037
- 41.7%Success rate44.6%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.149EPA / rush+0.038
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.68CPOE+2.86
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.05Points / drive2.30
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 23/27 | 244 | 4 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2/4 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| British Brooks | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Jayden Higgins | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Brenden Bates | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 3 | 18 | 2 |
| Jaylin Noel | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 14/20 | 179 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Zaire Mitchell-Paden | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.49