Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
51
Model margin
+6.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.203
- 45.6%Success rate48.1%
- +0.132EPA / dropback+0.322
- -0.071EPA / rush+0.088
- 8.7%Explosive rate12.0%
- +1.12CPOE+3.13
- 43.7%Third-down rate48.0%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 2.18Points / drive2.90
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 18/29 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
| AJ McCarron | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Buddy Howell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 12 | 80 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/24 | 222 | 4 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 2/2 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 8 | 112 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 10 | 79 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 4 | 75 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 4 | 37 | 2 |
| Patrick Ricard | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+6.59