2019 · Week 11

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

7·41

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

51

Model margin

+6.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRavens
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.203
  • 45.6%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback+0.322
  • -0.071EPA / rush+0.088
  • 8.7%Explosive rate12.0%
  • +1.12CPOE+3.13
  • 43.7%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 2.18Points / drive2.90
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU
2013 · W3HOU @ BAL9–30BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BAL
HOUQ1 15:0059Turnover0–0
BALQ1 12:22616Missed field goal0–0
HOUQ1 10:02834Turnover on downs0–0
BALQ1 5:46828Turnover on downs0–0
HOUQ1 2:0151Punt0–0
BALQ1 0:031080Touchdown0–7
HOUQ2 9:17413Punt0–7
BALQ2 6:36870Touchdown0–14
HOUQ2 2:141145Missed field goal0–14
BALQ2 0:0600End of half0–14
BALQ3 15:00748Touchdown0–21
HOUQ3 11:3352Punt0–21
BALQ3 9:41552Field goal0–24
HOUQ3 6:52520Turnover0–24
BALQ3 4:44516Field goal0–27
HOUQ3 1:30751Turnover on downs0–27
BALQ4 14:42981Touchdown0–34
HOUQ4 9:50662Touchdown7–34
BALQ4 7:10587Touchdown7–41
HOUQ4 4:014-5Turnover on downs7–41
BALQ4 2:29315End of half7–41

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson18/2916901
AJ McCarron0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde9657.21
Duke Johnson6406.70
Deshaun Watson3124.00
Buddy Howell252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins712800
Kenny Stills47270
Keke Coutee33250
Darren Fells13180
Jordan Akins12150
Duke Johnson2240
Carlos Hyde0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2422240
Robert Griffin III2/21500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards811214.01
Lamar Jackson10797.90
Mark Ingram13483.70
Justice Hill5183.60
Robert Griffin III1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews44751
Mark Ingram34372
Patrick Ricard33270
Marquise Brown24230
Nick Boyle23200
Hayden Hurst22160
Seth Roberts11151
Willie Snead23130
Justice Hill1190
Miles Boykin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+6.59