2023 · Week 1

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

9·25

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

BAL -9.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRavens
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.069
  • 41.4%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.164EPA / rush+0.009
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.53CPOE+2.73
  • 37.7%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.25
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU
2013 · W3HOU @ BAL9–30BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BAL
BALQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:494-7Turnover on downs0–0
BALQ1 10:53625Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 7:20414Punt0–0
BALQ1 5:281059Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 1:0032Punt0–7
BALQ2 14:53510Punt0–7
HOUQ2 12:501467Field goal3–7
BALQ2 3:56519Punt3–7
HOUQ2 1:541043Field goal6–7
HOUQ3 15:003-2Punt6–7
BALQ3 13:42871Touchdown6–15
HOUQ3 9:55622Turnover on downs6–15
BALQ3 7:35625Touchdown6–22
HOUQ3 5:21837Punt6–22
BALQ3 1:37410Turnover6–22
HOUQ3 0:26610Field goal9–22
BALQ4 13:47617Punt9–22
HOUQ4 10:14422Turnover9–22
BALQ4 9:00726Field goal9–25
HOUQ4 4:10827Turnover on downs9–25
BALQ4 2:0132Punt9–25
HOUQ4 0:58633End of half9–25

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud28/4424200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce11383.50
C.J. Stroud4205.00
Devin Singletary7152.10
Noah Brown1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins611800
Robert Woods610570
Tank Dell34340
Noah Brown34200
Mike Boone34180
Teagan Quitoriano11110
Dameon Pierce2390
Xavier Hutchinson1190
Dalton Schultz2440
C.J. Stroud1100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2216901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson6386.30
Gus Edwards8324.00
J.K. Dobbins8222.81
Justice Hill891.12
Zay Flowers294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers910780
Odell Beckham Jr.23370
Rashod Bateman33350
J.K. Dobbins23150
Isaiah Likely1140
Charlie Kolar0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.43