Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.069
- 41.4%Success rate47.3%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.164EPA / rush+0.009
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.53CPOE+2.73
- 37.7%Third-down rate42.3%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.91Points / drive2.25
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 28/44 | 242 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 6 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/22 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 2 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 9 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.43