Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
42
Model margin
+0.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.031
- 44.2%Success rate40.7%
- +0.149EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.120
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- -0.77CPOE-2.14
- 41.5%Third-down rate38.0%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
- 2.21Points / drive1.63
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/50 | 195 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 12 | 59 | 2 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 12 | 49 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 20/42 | 185 | 0 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 1/1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 13 | 65 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 12 | 38 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04