2014 · Week 16

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

13·25

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

42

Model margin

+0.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTexans
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.031
  • 44.2%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.149EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.120
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -0.77CPOE-2.14
  • 41.5%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.63
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2013 · W3HOU @ BAL9–30BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001073Field goal0–3
BALQ1 10:3336Punt0–3
HOUQ1 8:39519Turnover0–3
BALQ1 6:293-1Punt0–3
HOUQ1 5:201169Field goal0–6
BALQ2 14:57517Punt0–6
HOUQ2 12:13616Punt0–6
BALQ2 9:5736Punt0–6
HOUQ2 9:0233Punt0–6
BALQ2 7:3532Punt0–6
HOUQ2 6:3035Punt0–6
BALQ2 5:3631Turnover0–6
HOUQ2 4:5134Field goal0–9
BALQ2 3:5420Turnover0–9
HOUQ2 3:40419Touchdown0–16
BALQ2 1:53410Punt0–16
HOUQ2 0:5133Punt0–16
BALQ2 0:252-10End of half0–16
BALQ3 15:0038Punt0–16
HOUQ3 13:4532Punt0–16
BALQ3 12:1440Touchdown7–16
HOUQ3 11:1030Punt7–16
HOUQ3 10:5700Punt7–16
BALQ3 10:4910Turnover7–16
HOUQ3 10:37416Field goal7–16
HOUQ3 8:5411Field goal7–16
HOUQ3 8:1010Field goal7–19
BALQ3 8:0419Punt7–19
BALQ3 7:3710Punt7–19
BALQ3 7:0718Punt7–19
BALQ3 6:2948Punt7–19
BALQ3 5:0300Punt7–19
HOUQ3 4:571254Field goal7–22
BALQ4 14:501029Turnover on downs7–22
HOUQ4 12:26634Field goal7–25
BALQ4 9:551066Touchdown13–25
HOUQ4 5:563-1Punt13–25
BALQ4 4:11732Turnover on downs13–25
HOUQ4 2:273-4Punt13–25
BALQ4 1:04220End of half13–25

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/5019523

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett10191.90
Fitzgerald Toussaint4112.80
Joe Flacco155.00
Bernard Pierce1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith512592
Steve Smith512490
Jacoby Jones22280
Fitzgerald Toussaint25200
Justin Forsett44130
Marlon Brown15100
Crockett Gillmore1190
Owen Daniels1670
Kamar Aiken0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum20/4218501
Arian Foster1/1510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster25963.80
Case Keenum4194.80
Alfred Blue860.80
Jonathan Grimes122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson613650
DeAndre Hopkins512380
Damaris Johnson46270
Ryan Griffin33250
Arian Foster14230
C.J. Fiedorowicz23121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.65
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.04