Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.093
- 45.2%Success rate47.8%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.093EPA / rush-0.193
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.32CPOE+6.51
- 49.8%Third-down rate43.5%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.64Points / drive2.25
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/24 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 10 | 73 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 48 | 24.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 25/36 | 275 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 95 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 7 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.78