2020 · Week 2

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

33·16

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTexans
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.093
  • 45.2%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.093EPA / rush-0.193
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -0.32CPOE+6.51
  • 49.8%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.64Points / drive2.25
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU
2013 · W3HOU @ BAL9–30BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:5638Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:53521Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:111173Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 1:1449Turnover on downs3–0
BALQ2 15:00434Touchdown10–0
HOUQ2 12:55775Touchdown10–7
BALQ2 9:45853Field goal13–7
HOUQ2 5:3115Opp touchdown20–7
HOUQ2 5:16623Turnover20–7
BALQ2 2:2144Punt20–7
HOUQ2 1:06658Field goal20–10
BALQ3 15:001355Field goal23–10
HOUQ3 6:241458Field goal23–13
BALQ4 14:47675Touchdown30–13
HOUQ4 11:58949Field goal30–16
BALQ4 8:131264Field goal33–16
HOUQ4 3:443-3Punt33–16
BALQ4 2:23144End of half33–16

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson18/2420410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards10737.30
Mark Ingram9556.11
Lamar Jackson16543.40
J.K. Dobbins24824.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown56420
Miles Boykin45380
Willie Snead22290
Mark Andrews13290
Mark Ingram23220
Devin Duvernay11190
J.K. Dobbins11130
Nick Boyle11110
Patrick Ricard1111

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson25/3627511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson11343.10
Deshaun Watson5173.40
Will Fuller100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks58950
Randall Cobb56590
Jordan Akins77550
Darren Fells24231
Kenny Stills23160
David Johnson24160
Keke Coutee22110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.78