2024 · Week 17

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

31·2

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-2.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTexans
  • +0.199EPA / play-0.038
  • 49.4%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.328EPA / dropback+0.008
  • +0.053EPA / rush-0.120
  • 12.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.67CPOE-2.77
  • 47.9%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 76.9%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 2.80Points / drive1.84
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU
2013 · W3HOU @ BAL9–30BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–HOU
BALQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 10:08611Punt7–0
BALQ1 6:12636Field goal10–0
HOUQ1 2:47416Punt10–0
BALQ1 1:50622Punt10–0
HOUQ2 13:23623Punt10–2
BALQ2 10:151-4Safety10–2
HOUQ2 10:091036Turnover on downs10–2
BALQ2 5:317104Touchdown17–2
HOUQ2 1:51427Punt17–2
BALQ2 1:11428Punt17–2
HOUQ2 0:21312End of half17–2
HOUQ3 15:0037Turnover17–2
BALQ3 14:06261Touchdown24–2
HOUQ3 13:223-4Punt24–2
BALQ3 11:211047Touchdown31–2
HOUQ3 5:50857Turnover on downs31–2
BALQ3 2:10824Punt31–2
HOUQ4 11:2538Punt31–2
BALQ4 10:241139Punt31–2
HOUQ4 3:23618End of half31–2

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson10/1516820
Josh Johnson1/21600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry271475.41
Lamar Jackson48721.81
Keaton Mitchell11201.80
Rasheen Ali1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews22681
Zay Flowers25310
Keaton Mitchell11280
Derrick Henry22180
Anthony Miller11160
Rashod Bateman11120
Isaiah Likely1191
Tylan Wallace1120
Devontez Walker0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud17/3118501
Davis Mills1/1500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon9262.90
Dameon Pierce5132.60
Dare Ogunbowale2126.00
C.J. Stroud177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins36590
John Metchie III58480
Robert Woods22210
Dalton Schultz26210
Xavier Hutchinson24210
Joe Mixon23130
Dare Ogunbowale1160
Cade Stover1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.18