Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.199EPA / play-0.038
- 49.4%Success rate39.1%
- +0.328EPA / dropback+0.008
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.120
- 12.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.67CPOE-2.77
- 47.9%Third-down rate38.2%
- 76.9%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 2.80Points / drive1.84
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 10/15 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1/2 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 27 | 147 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4 | 87 | 21.8 | 1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 68 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Devontez Walker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 17/31 | 185 | 0 | 1 |
| Davis Mills | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.18