2017 · Week 12

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Tom Savage

16·23

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRavens
  • -0.053EPA / play-0.052
  • 40.4%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.050
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -2.95CPOE-1.33
  • 36.6%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 63.3%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.79
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU
2013 · W3HOU @ BAL9–30BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BAL
BALQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:141056Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 8:49631Punt7–0
HOUQ1 5:05630Punt7–0
BALQ1 2:1843Punt7–0
HOUQ1 0:4531Punt7–0
BALQ2 14:22845Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 11:10427Turnover7–7
BALQ2 9:10546Touchdown7–14
HOUQ2 6:441259Field goal10–14
BALQ2 1:481048Field goal10–17
HOUQ2 0:0700End of half10–17
HOUQ3 15:0039Punt10–17
BALQ3 13:48724Punt10–17
HOUQ3 10:551544Field goal13–17
BALQ3 4:3538Punt13–17
HOUQ3 2:4636Punt13–17
BALQ3 1:211046Field goal13–20
HOUQ4 10:54656Field goal16–20
BALQ4 8:3630Punt16–20
HOUQ4 6:3046Turnover16–20
BALQ4 4:44512Field goal16–23
HOUQ4 2:5329Turnover16–23
BALQ4 2:16225End of half16–23

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Savage22/3725202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller17513.01
Alfred Blue8151.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins7101250
Braxton Miller56430
C.J. Fiedorowicz48370
Bruce Ellington38290
Alfred Blue22110
Lamar Miller1370

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3214100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins16603.81
Joe Flacco6427.00
Danny Woodhead4225.50
Javorius Allen5153.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace511480
Chris Moore33370
Benjamin Watson33290
Danny Woodhead44230
Maxx Williams11120
Nick Boyle1190
Jeremy Maclin1560
Javorius Allen1120
Breshad Perriman0200
Alex Collins22-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.14