Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play-0.052
- 40.4%Success rate42.5%
- -0.004EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.2%
- -2.95CPOE-1.33
- 36.6%Third-down rate35.3%
- 63.3%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.47Points / drive1.79
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Savage | 22/37 | 252 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 10 | 125 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/32 | 141 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.14