2023 · DIV

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

10·34

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

BAL -10

Total

44

Model margin

+4.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRavens
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.069
  • 41.4%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.164EPA / rush+0.009
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.53CPOE+2.73
  • 37.7%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.25
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU
2013 · W3HOU @ BAL9–30BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BAL
HOUQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:31841Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 8:36748Punt0–3
BALQ1 5:0238Punt0–3
HOUQ1 3:22733Field goal3–3
BALQ1 0:281176Touchdown3–10
HOUQ2 9:1439Punt3–10
BALQ2 7:2130Opp touchdown10–10
BALQ2 4:1733Punt10–10
HOUQ2 3:19749Missed field goal10–10
BALQ2 0:323-10Punt10–10
HOUQ2 0:0500End of half10–10
BALQ3 15:00655Touchdown10–17
HOUQ3 12:041027Punt10–17
BALQ3 6:261288Touchdown10–24
HOUQ4 14:2335Punt10–24
BALQ4 13:301283Touchdown10–31
HOUQ4 6:20519Turnover on downs10–31
BALQ4 5:0478Field goal10–34
HOUQ4 1:56317End of half10–34

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud19/3317500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary9222.40
C.J. Stroud393.00
Dare Ogunbowale273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins510680
Devin Singletary56480
Dalton Schultz57430
Dare Ogunbowale11130
Robert Woods1460
Brevin Jordan0100
Xavier Hutchinson22-30

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson16/2215220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson111009.12
Justice Hill13665.10
Gus Edwards10404.00
Dalvin Cook8232.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers45410
Rashod Bateman33390
Isaiah Likely23341
Odell Beckham Jr.11120
Nelson Agholor24121
Justice Hill22110
Charlie Kolar1140
Gus Edwards12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.99