Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
-3.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.131
- 42.5%Success rate39.5%
- +0.113EPA / dropback-0.097
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.183
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- 41.0%Third-down rate32.4%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate38.1%
- 1.68Points / drive1.22
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.066EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:00 | 12 | 68 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 4:14 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 2:36 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 1:01 | 11 | 63 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 10:41 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CLE | Q2 8:41 | 10 | 74 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 3:42 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| CLE | Q2 1:14 | 4 | 59 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q2 0:44 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 25 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| CLE | Q3 10:13 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 6–14 |
| JAX | Q3 8:02 | 6 | 42 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| CLE | Q3 5:04 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–14 |
| JAX | Q3 3:09 | 5 | 33 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| CLE | Q3 1:11 | 11 | 49 | Punt | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q4 10:10 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–14 |
| CLE | Q4 9:15 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q4 8:43 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 20–14 |
| CLE | Q4 5:28 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q4 2:17 | 3 | 19 | End of half | 20–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 11/20 | 116 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 13/20 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 30 | 88 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.24
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.49