Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
38
Model margin
+2.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.102
- 40.6%Success rate38.8%
- -0.009EPA / dropback-0.109
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.090
- 7.1%Explosive rate5.7%
- 33.7%Third-down rate38.8%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.46Points / drive1.20
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 30 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 8:06 | 1 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| DET | Q1 7:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q1 6:50 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DET | Q1 2:14 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q1 1:05 | 5 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| DET | Q2 13:53 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–3 |
| MIN | Q2 11:27 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–3 |
| DET | Q2 10:02 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 14–3 |
| MIN | Q2 5:50 | 9 | 18 | Punt | 14–3 |
| DET | Q2 0:36 | 4 | 10 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| MIN | Q2 0:08 | 1 | 13 | End of half | 14–6 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 59 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| DET | Q3 10:45 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 21–6 |
| MIN | Q3 8:59 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 21–6 |
| DET | Q3 5:25 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 21–9 |
| MIN | Q3 1:51 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 21–9 |
| DET | Q4 13:28 | 11 | 58 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| MIN | Q4 7:38 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 21–16 |
| DET | Q4 2:46 | 8 | 42 | Turnover | 21–16 |
| MIN | Q4 0:52 | 3 | 1 | End of half | 21–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 17/23 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 22 | 79 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 17/35 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.87
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.23