Closing spread
SD -10
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:33 | 8 | 37 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 8:49 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q1 3:59 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 1:52 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q1 0:29 | 7 | 34 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 11:14 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:59 | 13 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:18 | 1 | 17 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 13:27 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q3 12:27 | 13 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| LV | Q3 4:55 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LAC | Q3 4:26 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| LV | Q4 13:33 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 10–27 |
| LAC | Q4 12:26 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–27 |
| LV | Q4 10:49 | 8 | 41 | Opp touchdown | 10–34 |
| LV | Q4 6:29 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–34 |
| LAC | Q4 5:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–34 |
| LV | Q4 2:46 | 8 | 68 | End of half | 10–34 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.