Closing spread
IND -14
Total
47.5
Model margin
+7.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play+0.188
- 40.6%Success rate51.2%
- -0.080EPA / dropback+0.339
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.007
- 6.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.5%Third-down rate50.1%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.17Points / drive2.60
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 22/33 | 220 | 0 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 4/6 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 13/17 | 187 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 28 | 107 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.9%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+7.21