2005 · Week 13
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
45
Model margin
+1.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 14/21 | 156 | 1 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 27 | 136 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Rock Cartwright | 9 | 118 | 13.1 | 0 |
| Nehemiah Broughton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.