2005 · Week 13
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
45
Model margin
+1.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:45 | 3 | -19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 11:15 | 2 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:29 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 7:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:13 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 4:06 | 7 | 40 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q2 13:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 12:05 | 12 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q2 7:05 | 8 | 78 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 3:11 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q2 1:33 | 4 | 33 | End of half | 10–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q3 12:48 | 11 | 56 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LA | Q3 5:27 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q3 2:03 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LA | Q4 13:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–9 |
| WAS | Q4 11:59 | 1 | -6 | Safety | 17–9 |
| LA | Q4 11:55 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 17–9 |
| LA | Q4 11:49 | 1 | 7 | Turnover | 17–9 |
| LA | Q4 11:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–9 |
| WAS | Q4 11:10 | 9 | 45 | Touchdown | 24–9 |
| LA | Q4 5:50 | 9 | 49 | Turnover | 24–9 |
| WAS | Q4 2:47 | 4 | 19 | End of half | 24–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 14/21 | 156 | 1 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 27 | 136 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Rock Cartwright | 9 | 118 | 13.1 | 0 |
| Nehemiah Broughton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.