2015 · Week 2
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
STL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/27 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 19 | 123 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Alfred Morris | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 6 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 7 | 23 | 1 |
| Matt Jones | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.