2015 · Week 2
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
STL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutChase ReynoldsRBKnee· DNP
- OutEugene SimsDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableTodd GurleyRBKnee· Full
- QuestionableTre MasonRBThigh· Full
- ProbableDaren BatesLBKnee· Full
- ProbableTrumaine JohnsonCBConcussion· Full
Commanders
- OutDeSean JacksonWRHamstring· DNP
- OutJustin RogersCBFoot· DNP
- OutMartrell SpaightLBConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableJackson JeffcoatLBThigh· Full
- QuestionableJordan ReedTEQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableTerrance KnightonDTRib· Limited
- QuestionableTom ComptonTCalf· Limited
- ProbableDeAngelo HallCBRib· Full
- ProbableKory LichtensteigerCFinger· Full
- ProbableTrent WilliamsTAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Commanders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 12:26 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:34 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 8:23 | 3 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 5:20 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 0:53 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q2 13:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 12:21 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q2 10:46 | 13 | 87 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 3:02 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–17 |
| WAS | Q2 1:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:22 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 0–17 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LA | Q3 12:48 | 5 | 39 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| WAS | Q3 9:33 | 5 | 25 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| LA | Q3 7:55 | 2 | 49 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q3 7:01 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LA | Q3 5:19 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q3 1:58 | 9 | 45 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LA | Q4 12:15 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q4 9:27 | 12 | 57 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| LA | Q4 2:38 | 8 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| WAS | Q4 1:33 | 3 | 5 | End of half | 10–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/27 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 19 | 123 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Alfred Morris | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 6 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 7 | 23 | 1 |
| Matt Jones | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.