2017 · Week 2
Final
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
LA -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.054
- 40.8%Success rate43.3%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.131
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.1%Explosive rate11.4%
- +1.00CPOE-1.32
- 32.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.61Points / drive2.27
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. LA are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/27 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Kelley | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 77 | 25.7 | 2 |
| Samaje Perine | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 6 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Josh Doctson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 14/24 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 16 | 88 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 3 | 95 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.44