2011 · Week 4
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
44
Model margin
+4.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 15/29 | 143 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 19 | 135 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 11 | 39 | 1 |
| Fred Davis | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
6.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.