2011 · Week 4
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
44
Model margin
+4.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Commanders
- QuestionableAnthony ArmstrongWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableDarrel YoungRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableDeJon GomesSHamstring· Limited
- ProbableBrandon BanksWRKnee· Full
- ProbableChris CooleyTEKnee· Full
- ProbableJosh WilsonCBBack· Full
- ProbableLaRon LandrySHamstring· Full
- ProbableStephen BowenDEElbow· Full
- ProbableWill MontgomeryCKnee· Full
Rams
- QuestionableDanny AmendolaWRElbow· DNP
- ProbableMichael HoomanawanuiTEBack· Limited
- ProbableSteven JacksonRBQuadricep· Limited
- ProbableCarnell WilliamsRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableDarell ScottDTThumb· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 11:49 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 8:40 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:06 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q2 14:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 13:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q2 12:45 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:52 | 8 | 6 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q2 7:07 | 3 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LA | Q2 5:42 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 14–0 |
| WAS | Q2 1:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LA | Q2 0:34 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 14–0 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| LA | Q3 11:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q3 10:42 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LA | Q3 6:05 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q3 4:51 | 13 | 54 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| LA | Q4 12:34 | 7 | 22 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| WAS | Q4 10:09 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–3 |
| LA | Q4 8:32 | 11 | 55 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| WAS | Q4 5:45 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| LA | Q4 5:30 | 4 | -15 | Punt | 17–10 |
| WAS | Q4 4:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LA | Q4 3:20 | 7 | 11 | Turnover on downs | 17–10 |
| WAS | Q4 2:11 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 15/29 | 143 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 19 | 135 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 11 | 39 | 1 |
| Fred Davis | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
6.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.