2020 · Week 5
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
LA -7
Total
45
Model margin
+4.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.051
- 44.6%Success rate42.1%
- +0.032EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.030
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- +0.37CPOE-1.32
- 44.2%Third-down rate40.2%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.76Points / drive1.76
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/30 | 309 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 15 | 38 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 4 | 90 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 71 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 9/13 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 9/17 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Temarrick Hemingway | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
38.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.72