2020 · Week 5

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

30·10

Commanders

Washington

QB Kyle Allen

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

LA -7

Total

45

Model margin

+4.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.013EPA / play-0.051
  • 44.6%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback-0.063
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.030
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +0.37CPOE-1.32
  • 44.2%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.76
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15WAS @ LA20–28RAMS
2017 · W2WAS @ LA27–20WAS
2015 · W2STL @ WAS10–24WAS
2014 · W14STL @ WAS24–0RAMS
2012 · W2WAS @ STL28–31RAMS
2011 · W4WAS @ STL17–10WAS
2010 · W3WAS @ STL16–30RAMS
2009 · W2STL @ WAS7–9WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–WAS
WASQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:321076Touchdown6–0
WASQ1 7:291158Touchdown6–7
LAQ1 1:34560Touchdown13–7
WASQ2 14:52517Punt13–7
LAQ2 12:12983Touchdown20–7
WASQ2 7:323-5Punt20–7
LAQ2 5:49617Punt20–7
WASQ2 2:55611Punt20–7
LAQ2 1:32415Turnover20–7
WASQ2 0:49429Field goal20–10
LAQ3 15:003-8Punt20–10
WASQ3 12:543-10Punt20–10
LAQ3 10:55970Field goal23–10
WASQ3 7:0431Punt23–10
LAQ3 5:2938Punt23–10
WASQ3 3:223-5Punt23–10
LAQ3 1:1449Turnover on downs23–10
WASQ4 14:5548Turnover on downs23–10
LAQ4 13:3233Punt23–10
WASQ4 11:113-5Punt23–10
LAQ4 9:31551Touchdown30–10
WASQ4 6:373-2Punt30–10
LAQ4 5:37445Punt30–10
WASQ4 2:2737Punt30–10
LAQ4 1:4512End of half30–10

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/3030921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers9616.80
Darrell Henderson15382.51
Malcolm Brown8303.80
Jared Goff300.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gerald Everett44900
Robert Woods45711
Cooper Kupp58660
Josh Reynolds24460
Darrell Henderson34301
Tyler Higbee22120
Malcolm Brown12-60

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen9/137400
Alex Smith9/173700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson11272.50
Kyle Allen177.01
J.D. McKissic133.00
Alex Smith111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.D. McKissic68460
Terry McLaurin37260
Antonio Gibson55240
Temarrick Hemingway11100
Logan Thomas1440
Isaiah Wright1130
Jeremy Sprinkle0100
Dontrelle Inman11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

3.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.6%

Expected total

38.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.72