2014 · Week 14
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
STL -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 20/32 | 199 | 0 | 2 |
| Robert Griffin III | 3/4 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Silas Redd | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 9 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Silas Redd | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.