NFL Intelligence

2014 · Week 14

Final

Rams

St. Louis

QB Shaun Hill

24·0

Commanders

Washington

QB Colt McCoy

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

STL -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

ProbableWilliam HayesDENot Injury Related· DNP
LimitedTavon AustinWRBack
ProbableChris LongDEAnkle· Full
ProbableDavin JosephGNot Injury Related· Full
ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBAnkle· Full
ProbableMarcus RobersonCBAnkle· Full
ProbableRodger SaffoldTShoulder· Full
ProbableScott WellsCNot Injury Related· Full
ProbableWill HerringLBFoot· Full

Commanders

OutChase MinnifieldCBConcussion· DNP
OutKedric GolstonDEFoot· DNP
DoubtfulBrandon MeriweatherSToe· DNP
QuestionableChris BakerDEChest· Limited
QuestionableDeSean JacksonWRShin· DNP
QuestionableE.J. BiggersCBConcussion· Limited
QuestionableJason HatcherDEKnee· Limited
QuestionableKeenan RobinsonLBKnee· DNP
ProbableRyan ClarkSStinger· Full
ProbableRyan KerriganLBWrist· Full
ProbableSilas ReddRBRib· Full
ProbableTyler PolumbusTNot Injury Related· Full
ProbableWill ComptonLBStinger· Full

Win probability

Commanders
Rams

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2023 · W15	WAS @ LA	20–28	RAMS
2020 · W5	LA @ WAS	30–10	RAMS
2017 · W2	WAS @ LA	27–20	WAS
2015 · W2	STL @ WAS	10–24	WAS
2012 · W2	WAS @ STL	28–31	RAMS
2011 · W4	WAS @ STL	17–10	WAS
2010 · W3	WAS @ STL	16–30	RAMS
2009 · W2	STL @ WAS	7–9	WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	STL–WAS
WAS	Q1 15:00	9	42	Turnover	0–0
LA	Q1 10:16	14	46	Punt	0–0
WAS	Q1 2:56	5	24	Punt	0–0
LA	Q2 14:53	6	68	Touchdown	6–0
WAS	Q2 12:19	4	6	Punt	6–0
LA	Q2 9:38	6	20	Missed field goal	6–0
WAS	Q2 5:32	3	9	Punt	6–0
LA	Q2 3:20	4	36	Punt	6–0
WAS	Q2 1:39	4	12	Punt	6–0
LA	Q2 0:32	4	27	Missed field goal	6–0
LA	Q3 15:00	12	66	Field goal	9–0
WAS	Q3 7:39	4	7	Turnover on downs	9–0
LA	Q3 6:07	5	45	Touchdown	17–0
WAS	Q3 3:52	3	5	Opp touchdown	24–0
WAS	Q3 1:36	6	25	Punt	24–0
LA	Q4 14:11	7	23	Punt	24–0
WAS	Q4 10:05	12	55	Turnover	24–0
LA	Q4 5:15	3	-1	Punt	24–0
WAS	Q4 2:52	7	21	Turnover on downs	24–0
LA	Q4 0:31	0	0	End of half	24–0

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Colt McCoy	20/32	199	0	2
Robert Griffin III	3/4	33	0	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Colt McCoy	2	11	5.5
Silas Redd	1	8	8.0
Alfred Morris	8	6	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds
Pierre Garcon	9	11	95
Santana Moss	3	5	43
Silas Redd	3	4	36
Jordan Reed	3	7	25
Andre Roberts	2	2	11
Alfred Morris	1	3	11
Niles Paul	1	1	7
Ryan Grant	1	3	4

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.65
Home-field advantage+2.49
Quarterback adjustment+3.03
Rest differential0.00
Expected margin+2.86

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.