2012 · Week 2
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 20/29 | 206 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 11 | 82 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Hankerson | 2 | 3 | 68 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.66
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.