2012 · Week 2
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Commanders
- OutBrandon MeriweatherSKnee· DNP
- QuestionablePierre GarconWRFoot· Limited
- ProbableChris BakerDTAnkle· Full
Rams
- OutMatt ConrathDTKnee· DNP
- OutMichael BrockersDTAnkle· DNP
- OutRokevious WatkinsGAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMike McNeillTEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRodger SaffoldTNeck· Full
- LimitedDarell ScottDTKnee
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 14:49 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q1 9:05 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 5:33 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q1 4:24 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| LA | Q1 0:19 | 14 | 84 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| WAS | Q2 8:17 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| LA | Q2 6:19 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| WAS | Q2 1:58 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 21–13 |
| LA | Q2 0:45 | 4 | 26 | Field goal | 21–16 |
| WAS | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–16 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–16 |
| LA | Q3 12:34 | 5 | 58 | Touchdown | 21–23 |
| WAS | Q3 10:23 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 28–23 |
| LA | Q3 5:27 | 5 | 74 | Turnover | 28–23 |
| WAS | Q3 3:25 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 28–23 |
| LA | Q3 1:51 | 4 | 24 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| WAS | Q4 14:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 28–31 |
| LA | Q4 13:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 28–31 |
| WAS | Q4 12:00 | 9 | 50 | Punt | 28–31 |
| LA | Q4 7:07 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 28–31 |
| WAS | Q4 4:54 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 28–31 |
| LA | Q4 3:54 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 28–31 |
| WAS | Q4 2:40 | 6 | 34 | Missed field goal | 28–31 |
| LA | Q4 1:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 20/29 | 206 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 11 | 82 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Hankerson | 2 | 3 | 68 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.66
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.