2010 · Week 3
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay
Closing spread
WAS -4.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/32 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 6 | 8 | 124 | 1 |
| Chris Cooley | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Roydell Williams | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.