2010 · Week 3

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

16·30

Rams

St. Louis

QB Sam Bradford

Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay

Closing spread

WAS -4.5

Total

39

Model margin

+3.8est.

STL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15WAS @ LA20–28RAMS
2020 · W5LA @ WAS30–10RAMS
2017 · W2WAS @ LA27–20WAS
2015 · W2STL @ WAS10–24WAS
2014 · W14STL @ WAS24–0RAMS
2012 · W2WAS @ STL28–31RAMS
2011 · W4WAS @ STL17–10WAS
2009 · W2STL @ WAS7–9WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–STL
LAQ1 15:00860Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 11:31434Turnover0–7
LAQ1 9:2923Touchdown0–14
WASQ1 8:48313Punt0–14
LAQ1 5:4810Turnover0–14
WASQ1 5:39639Punt0–14
LAQ1 3:2438Punt0–14
WASQ1 1:48614Field goal3–14
LAQ2 14:5000Touchdown9–14
WASQ2 14:43121Touchdown10–14
LAQ2 14:3768Punt10–14
WASQ2 12:31777Field goal13–14
LAQ2 7:371867Missed field goal13–14
WASQ2 0:2500End of half13–14
WASQ3 15:00461Field goal16–14
LAQ3 12:391279Touchdown16–21
WASQ3 7:15510Punt16–21
LAQ3 4:3839Punt16–21
WASQ3 2:1830Punt16–21
LAQ3 1:551046Field goal16–24
WASQ4 11:35416Punt16–24
LAQ4 8:53821Field goal16–27
WASQ4 4:22316Turnover16–27
LAQ4 3:39734Field goal16–30
WASQ4 1:44649End of half16–30

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb19/3223611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain7466.60
Clinton Portis7446.30
Donovan McNabb22512.50
Mike Sellers111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss681241
Chris Cooley58530
Clinton Portis11140
Keiland Williams24140
Fred Davis22110
Mike Sellers22100
Roydell Williams13100
Joey Galloway0200
Ryan Torain0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.77

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.