2023 · Week 15
Final
SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
Closing spread
LA -6.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.042
- 41.9%Success rate44.9%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.022
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.32CPOE-3.54
- 35.6%Third-down rate41.4%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.53Points / drive2.13
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. LA are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 8/10 | 124 | 2 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 11/26 | 102 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 12 | 141 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 9 | 41 | 2 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/33 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 27 | 152 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 8 | 111 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.87