2023 · Week 15

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

20·28

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -6.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapRams
  • -0.084EPA / play+0.042
  • 41.9%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.085
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.022
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.32CPOE-3.54
  • 35.6%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.53Points / drive2.13
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. LA are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W5LA @ WAS30–10RAMS
2017 · W2WAS @ LA27–20WAS
2015 · W2STL @ WAS10–24WAS
2014 · W14STL @ WAS24–0RAMS
2012 · W2WAS @ STL28–31RAMS
2011 · W4WAS @ STL17–10WAS
2010 · W3WAS @ STL16–30RAMS
2009 · W2STL @ WAS7–9WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–LA
WASQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
LAQ1 14:111082Field goal0–3
WASQ1 7:391473Turnover on downs0–3
LAQ1 0:361278Turnover0–3
WASQ2 9:0736Punt0–3
LAQ2 7:301053Touchdown0–10
WASQ2 2:1936Punt0–10
LAQ2 1:49431Turnover0–10
WASQ2 1:084-8Turnover on downs0–10
LAQ2 0:346-2Field goal0–13
WASQ2 0:0300End of half0–13
LAQ3 15:00275Touchdown0–20
WASQ3 14:07731Punt0–20
LAQ3 10:243-3Punt0–20
WASQ3 9:13748Touchdown7–20
LAQ3 6:25733Punt7–20
WASQ3 1:5834Punt7–20
LAQ3 0:16551Touchdown7–28
WASQ4 13:2510Turnover7–28
LAQ4 13:12728Missed field goal7–28
WASQ4 9:05562Touchdown14–28
LAQ4 7:173-2Punt14–28
WASQ4 5:031169Touchdown20–28
LAQ4 1:46521End of half20–28

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett8/1012420
Sam Howell11/2610211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.10353.50
Sam Howell3227.30
Antonio Gibson4153.80
Jacoby Brissett294.50
Jonathan Williams1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin6121411
Curtis Samuel59412
Antonio Gibson55200
Jahan Dotson11120
Logan Thomas1370
Byron Pringle1150
Jonathan Williams0100
Dyami Brown0100
John Bates0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/3325820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams271525.61
Demarcus Robinson12323.00
Royce Freeman6162.70
Puka Nacua231.50
Matthew Stafford122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp881111
Puka Nacua58500
Demarcus Robinson23441
Tyler Higbee45360
Davis Allen11140
Kyren Williams5730

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.87