Closing spread
DEN -14
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play+0.088
- 38.7%Success rate44.7%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.179EPA / rush+0.067
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- 39.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.20Points / drive1.97
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:59 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q1 8:44 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q1 5:09 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q1 1:27 | 10 | 45 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q2 11:33 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 7:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q2 6:21 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 2:42 | 9 | 48 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q2 0:48 | 5 | 50 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q3 11:03 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| DEN | Q3 9:54 | 8 | 42 | Touchdown | 3–12 |
| BAL | Q3 6:08 | 11 | 50 | Turnover | 3–12 |
| DEN | Q3 0:50 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–12 |
| BAL | Q4 15:00 | 10 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 3–12 |
| DEN | Q4 9:49 | 7 | 50 | Turnover | 3–12 |
| BAL | Q4 6:08 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–12 |
| DEN | Q4 5:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–12 |
| BAL | Q4 4:11 | 9 | 87 | Touchdown | 10–12 |
| DEN | Q4 1:52 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 10–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 23/39 | 251 | 1 | 2 |
| Mark Clayton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 19/33 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.23