Closing spread
CIN -12.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.102
- 39.5%Success rate48.2%
- -0.097EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.183EPA / rush+0.023
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- 32.4%Third-down rate43.8%
- 38.1%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.22Points / drive2.30
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 13:22 | 9 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 8:23 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q1 4:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q1 1:48 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q2 14:50 | 5 | 19 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| CIN | Q2 12:18 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| CLE | Q2 7:38 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q2 6:43 | 12 | 40 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| CLE | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–13 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 70 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| CIN | Q3 6:11 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–13 |
| CLE | Q3 4:58 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| CIN | Q3 3:41 | 8 | 37 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| CLE | Q3 0:02 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 17–20 |
| CIN | Q4 10:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–20 |
| CLE | Q4 9:46 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| CIN | Q4 4:19 | 13 | 33 | Field goal | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 16/24 | 138 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Lee Suggs | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 13/27 | 93 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 30 | 169 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Chris Perry | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.20