Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.059
- 38.8%Success rate42.0%
- -0.109EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.090EPA / rush-0.158
- 5.7%Explosive rate6.6%
- 38.8%Third-down rate41.1%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.20Points / drive1.29
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 72 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:03 | 2 | -11 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:14 | 6 | 13 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| GB | Q1 7:11 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| DET | Q1 2:26 | 4 | 11 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| GB | Q1 0:43 | 13 | 57 | Missed field goal | 13–3 |
| DET | Q2 7:42 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 13–3 |
| GB | Q2 6:20 | 3 | 77 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| DET | Q2 4:56 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–10 |
| GB | Q2 3:16 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 13–10 |
| DET | Q2 0:15 | 3 | 6 | End of half | 13–10 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–10 |
| DET | Q3 14:03 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 13–10 |
| GB | Q3 8:53 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 13–10 |
| DET | Q3 4:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–10 |
| GB | Q3 2:49 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| DET | Q4 14:22 | 11 | 66 | Turnover on downs | 13–13 |
| GB | Q4 7:07 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 13–13 |
| DET | Q4 3:07 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–13 |
| GB | Q4 2:10 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–13 |
| DET | Q4 1:02 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 13–13 |
| GB | Q4 0:25 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| GB | OT | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 13/24 | 112 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/31 | 170 | 0 | 1 |
| Samkon Gado | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 29 | 171 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.87
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.39