Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.059
- 38.8%Success rate42.0%
- -0.109EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.090EPA / rush-0.158
- 5.7%Explosive rate6.6%
- 38.8%Third-down rate41.1%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.20Points / drive1.29
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 13/24 | 112 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/31 | 170 | 0 | 1 |
| Samkon Gado | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 29 | 171 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.87
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.39