Closing spread
TEN -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.113
- 40.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.098EPA / rush-0.171
- 6.2%Explosive rate6.1%
- 34.0%Third-down rate34.5%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.30Points / drive1.17
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.119EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/26 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 22 | 139 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kris Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/30 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63