Closing spread
TEN -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.113
- 40.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.098EPA / rush-0.171
- 6.2%Explosive rate6.1%
- 34.0%Third-down rate34.5%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.30Points / drive1.17
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.119EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 12:58 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 10:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:12 | 7 | 32 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 4:15 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 3:28 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 2:30 | 5 | 54 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 0:03 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q2 11:00 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 7:23 | 6 | 70 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q2 4:28 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 2:26 | 5 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q2 1:45 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| TEN | Q2 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| HOU | Q3 9:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| TEN | Q3 7:37 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 10–3 |
| HOU | Q3 4:30 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q3 3:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q3 1:57 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q3 0:26 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q4 11:45 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q4 9:27 | 10 | 40 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q4 3:47 | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| HOU | Q4 0:10 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/26 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 22 | 139 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kris Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/30 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63