2005 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

26·18

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

IND -7.5

Total

43

Model margin

+3.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.188EPA / play+0.026
  • 51.2%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.339EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.079
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 50.1%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.60Points / drive1.68
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.066

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning24/3632420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James30933.10
Peyton Manning461.50

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard26/3525010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor10191.90
David Garrard5193.81
Reggie Williams1-7-7.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.21
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.16