Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.188EPA / play+0.026
- 51.2%Success rate42.5%
- +0.339EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.079
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- 50.1%Third-down rate41.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 2.60Points / drive1.68
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.066
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:39 | 11 | 89 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 4:40 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 1:50 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 0:47 | 5 | 12 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| IND | Q2 14:11 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 11:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–3 |
| IND | Q2 9:32 | 1 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| JAX | Q2 9:21 | 7 | 62 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| IND | Q2 5:46 | 10 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 14–3 |
| JAX | Q2 2:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–3 |
| IND | Q2 0:54 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 52 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| JAX | Q3 8:14 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–3 |
| IND | Q3 6:44 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 23–3 |
| JAX | Q3 0:45 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 23–3 |
| IND | Q3 0:15 | 6 | 15 | Field goal | 26–3 |
| JAX | Q4 12:13 | 8 | 45 | Turnover | 26–3 |
| IND | Q4 9:16 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 26–3 |
| JAX | Q4 6:54 | 7 | 59 | Touchdown | 26–10 |
| IND | Q4 4:08 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 26–10 |
| JAX | Q4 4:07 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 26–18 |
| IND | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 26–18 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/36 | 324 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 30 | 93 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 26/35 | 250 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.16