Closing spread
SD -13.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/22 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.