Closing spread
SD -13.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 11:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:24 | 15 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 2:40 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:39 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 14:54 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:42 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 13:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:58 | 8 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 7:38 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:39 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 0:39 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| LAC | Q3 11:43 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| MIA | Q3 11:36 | 3 | 24 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q3 10:35 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 13–7 |
| MIA | Q3 6:17 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| LAC | Q3 3:26 | 14 | 68 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| MIA | Q4 10:34 | 6 | 64 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| LAC | Q4 7:55 | 13 | 20 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| MIA | Q4 2:31 | 6 | 13 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| LAC | Q4 1:11 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 23–21 |
| MIA | Q4 0:15 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 23–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/22 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.