Closing spread
ATL -10
Total
44
Model margin
+3.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.020
- 41.1%Success rate40.6%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.024
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 38.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.11Points / drive1.65
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.032EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 27/46 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/23 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 1/2 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 2 |
| T.J. Duckett | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.38