Closing spread
ATL -10
Total
44
Model margin
+3.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.020
- 41.1%Success rate40.6%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.024
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 38.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.11Points / drive1.65
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.032EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:24 | 3 | 22 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 11:19 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 10:22 | 15 | 46 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 3:05 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 0:48 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q2 13:55 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 9–7 |
| NO | Q2 11:18 | 1 | 6 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 11:13 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NO | Q2 6:06 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 10–14 |
| ATL | Q2 2:17 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| NO | Q2 1:49 | 9 | 95 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| ATL | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–21 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–21 |
| ATL | Q3 13:22 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–21 |
| NO | Q3 11:52 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 17–21 |
| ATL | Q3 8:44 | 2 | 48 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| NO | Q3 7:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–28 |
| ATL | Q3 6:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–28 |
| NO | Q3 4:25 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 17–28 |
| ATL | Q3 2:55 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 17–28 |
| NO | Q3 1:18 | 2 | -10 | Safety | 17–30 |
| ATL | Q3 0:40 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 17–30 |
| NO | Q4 13:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–30 |
| ATL | Q4 12:11 | 5 | 23 | Field goal | 17–33 |
| NO | Q4 8:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–33 |
| ATL | Q4 7:26 | 7 | 67 | Field goal | 17–36 |
| NO | Q4 3:01 | 13 | 60 | End of half | 17–36 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 27/46 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/23 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 1/2 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 2 |
| T.J. Duckett | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.38