Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. NYJ are 8-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 14/26 | 119 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Houston | 28 | 74 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.