Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 12–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. NYJ are 8-10-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 8:55 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:24 | 8 | 16 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 2:42 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:20 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q2 9:16 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:53 | 8 | 12 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LV | Q2 5:13 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:48 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–6 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 16 | Missed field goal | 3–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 11:56 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| LV | Q3 6:25 | 1 | -8 | Turnover | 3–9 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:15 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 3–12 |
| LV | Q3 2:55 | 1 | -7 | Turnover | 3–12 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:41 | 6 | 29 | Touchdown | 3–19 |
| LV | Q4 14:54 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–19 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:15 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 10–19 |
| LV | Q4 7:23 | 3 | -18 | Punt | 10–19 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:45 | 9 | 50 | Touchdown | 10–26 |
| LV | Q4 1:56 | 7 | 29 | Turnover | 10–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 14/26 | 119 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Houston | 28 | 74 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.