Closing spread
SEA -15.5
Total
45
Model margin
+8.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play+0.156
- 34.0%Success rate49.3%
- -0.265EPA / dropback+0.205
- -0.129EPA / rush+0.100
- 6.8%Explosive rate11.2%
- 25.0%Third-down rate40.1%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
- 0.94Points / drive2.39
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 10:40 | 12 | 33 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 4:35 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| SF | Q2 14:56 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| SEA | Q2 14:45 | 1 | 21 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| SF | Q2 14:38 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 12:26 | 9 | 20 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| SF | Q2 7:28 | 8 | 14 | Punt | 3–24 |
| SEA | Q2 4:20 | 7 | 61 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| SF | Q2 1:15 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–24 |
| SEA | Q2 0:14 | 1 | 0 | Missed field goal | 3–24 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–24 |
| SEA | Q3 13:20 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 3–31 |
| SF | Q3 7:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–31 |
| SEA | Q3 5:18 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 3–31 |
| SF | Q3 3:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–31 |
| SEA | Q3 2:56 | 5 | 24 | Touchdown | 3–38 |
| SF | Q3 1:29 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–38 |
| SEA | Q4 14:33 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 3–38 |
| SF | Q4 10:10 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 3–38 |
| SEA | Q4 7:44 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 3–41 |
| SF | Q4 5:15 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–41 |
| SEA | Q4 3:05 | 4 | 39 | End of half | 3–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 9/22 | 77 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/25 | 226 | 4 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 3/5 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 21 | 108 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.42