Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. MIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 13:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:54 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 9:58 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 5:36 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 2:27 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:19 | 9 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q2 10:32 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 9:32 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 6:54 | 4 | 20 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:52 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 3:34 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:43 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 1:18 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| LA | Q2 0:59 | 5 | 34 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 6–13 |
| LA | Q3 13:20 | 6 | 49 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| MIN | Q3 10:42 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| LA | Q3 8:05 | 5 | 10 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| MIN | Q3 5:01 | 5 | 17 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| LA | Q3 3:11 | 5 | 43 | Punt | 13–27 |
| MIN | Q3 0:27 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–27 |
| LA | Q4 13:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–27 |
| MIN | Q4 12:35 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 13–27 |
| LA | Q4 11:15 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 13–27 |
| MIN | Q4 9:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–27 |
| LA | Q4 7:28 | 11 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 13–27 |
| MIN | Q4 2:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–27 |
| LA | Q4 1:50 | 4 | 26 | Turnover | 13–27 |
| LA | Q4 1:02 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 13–27 |
| MIN | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 16/25 | 146 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Troy Williamson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.