2005 · Week 14
Final
Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.074
- 41.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.308
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.1%Third-down rate38.3%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
- 1.80Points / drive1.36
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.058EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 18/28 | 122 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 26 | 105 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 25/41 | 255 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.72