Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. OAK are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 21/32 | 198 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.11
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.