Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.179EPA / play-0.131
- 37.1%Success rate41.0%
- -0.196EPA / dropback-0.058
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.283
- 5.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- -4.22CPOE-1.46
- 28.8%Third-down rate34.2%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.09Points / drive1.51
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. LV are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 24/32 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 7 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Proche | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 14/24 | 130 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 60 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 1 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tyreik McAllister | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.87