2024 · Week 4

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

16·20

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Gardner Minshew

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.179EPA / play-0.131
  • 37.1%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.196EPA / dropback-0.058
  • -0.140EPA / rush-0.283
  • 5.8%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -4.22CPOE-1.46
  • 28.8%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.51
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. LV are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CLE @ LV24–10CLE
2021 · W15LV @ CLE16–14RAIDERS
2020 · W8LV @ CLE16–6RAIDERS
2018 · W4CLE @ OAK42–45RAIDERS
2015 · W3OAK @ CLE27–20RAIDERS
2014 · W8OAK @ CLE13–23CLE
2012 · W13CLE @ OAK20–17CLE
2011 · W6CLE @ OAK17–24RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–LV
CLEQ1 15:001560Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 5:3842Punt7–0
CLEQ1 3:55517Field goal10–0
LVQ1 0:351170Touchdown10–7
CLEQ2 9:5032Punt10–7
LVQ2 7:58955Field goal10–10
CLEQ2 2:52743Punt10–10
LVQ2 1:20315End of half10–10
LVQ3 15:00840Field goal10–13
CLEQ3 11:28623Turnover10–13
LVQ3 7:59748Touchdown10–20
CLEQ3 5:2364Punt10–20
LVQ3 1:2935Opp touchdown16–20
LVQ4 14:50515Punt16–20
CLEQ4 11:50630Punt16–20
LVQ4 8:48425Punt16–20
CLEQ4 6:2436Punt16–20
LVQ4 4:553-5Punt16–20
CLEQ4 3:17856Turnover on downs16–20
LVQ4 0:3500End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson24/3217611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford10585.80
Deshaun Watson8324.00
D'Onta Foreman420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy69720
Amari Cooper48350
Jerome Ford77270
Blake Whiteheart33131
Elijah Moore11110
Jordan Akins12100
D'Onta Foreman1150
James Proche1130

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew14/2413000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison56012.00
Zamir White17502.90
DJ Turner11818.01
Brock Bowers11212.00
Tyreik McAllister2115.50
Tre Tucker133.01
Gardner Minshew2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers510490
Tre Tucker56410
Harrison Bryant22210
Brock Bowers23190
Alexander Mattison0100
DJ Turner0100
Zamir White0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.87