Closing spread
CLE -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDavid AusberryTEFoot· DNP
- OutKeith McGillCBGroin· DNP
- OutLaMarr WoodleyDEBiceps· DNP
- OutUsama YoungSKnee· DNP
- OutVincent BrownWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableCarlos RogersCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJustin TuckDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableKhalif BarnesGQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableMarcel ReeceRBQuadricep· Limited
- ProbableAustin HowardGNeck· Full
Browns
- OutPhillip TaylorDEKnee· DNP
- OutRodney SmithWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableBilly WinnDEQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableJim LeonhardCBAnkle· DNP
- ProbableAhtyba RubinDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableBarkevious MingoLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDesmond BryantDEWrist· Full
- ProbableK'Waun WilliamsCBConcussion· Full
Win probability
- Browns
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 11:00 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 9:54 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q1 6:51 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 2:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CLE | Q1 1:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q2 14:52 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CLE | Q2 11:00 | 10 | 79 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| LV | Q2 5:46 | 8 | 53 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| CLE | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 3–9 |
| LV | Q2 1:24 | 3 | 48 | Field goal | 6–9 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–9 |
| LV | Q3 13:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–9 |
| CLE | Q3 12:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–9 |
| LV | Q3 10:42 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 6–9 |
| CLE | Q3 8:38 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 6–9 |
| LV | Q3 6:56 | 12 | 71 | Turnover | 6–9 |
| CLE | Q3 0:23 | 4 | 53 | Touchdown | 6–16 |
| LV | Q4 14:17 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 6–16 |
| CLE | Q4 11:12 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 6–16 |
| LV | Q4 7:51 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 6–16 |
| CLE | Q4 6:48 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 6–16 |
| LV | Q4 3:48 | 2 | -4 | Turnover | 6–16 |
| CLE | Q4 3:14 | 2 | 9 | Touchdown | 6–23 |
| LV | Q4 2:26 | 16 | 80 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| CLE | Q4 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 19/28 | 275 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Terrance West | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hawkins | 7 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.