2025 · Week 12

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Shedeur Sanders

24·10

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -3

Total

35.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

LV perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Raiders

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.176EPA / play-0.192
  • 35.2%Success rate38.6%
  • -0.212EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.304
  • 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -5.66CPOE-0.91
  • 33.8%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 48.2%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.25
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. LV are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4CLE @ LV16–20RAIDERS
2021 · W15LV @ CLE16–14RAIDERS
2020 · W8LV @ CLE16–6RAIDERS
2018 · W4CLE @ OAK42–45RAIDERS
2015 · W3OAK @ CLE27–20RAIDERS
2014 · W8OAK @ CLE13–23CLE
2012 · W13CLE @ OAK20–17CLE
2011 · W6CLE @ OAK17–24RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–LV
CLEQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:51713Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:12213Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 8:243-9Punt7–0
CLEQ1 6:573-6Punt7–0
LVQ1 5:21311Punt7–0
CLEQ1 3:10573Touchdown14–0
LVQ1 0:48845Missed field goal14–0
CLEQ2 11:2810Turnover14–0
LVQ2 11:2033Field goal14–3
CLEQ2 9:123-1Punt14–3
LVQ2 7:32615Punt14–3
CLEQ2 4:04139Turnover14–3
LVQ2 3:5030Punt14–3
CLEQ2 2:2037Punt14–3
LVQ2 1:35523Punt14–3
CLEQ2 0:1800End of half14–3
LVQ3 15:00711Turnover on downs14–3
CLEQ3 10:5937Punt14–3
LVQ3 9:0634Punt14–3
CLEQ3 8:05728Punt14–3
LVQ3 3:35838Turnover on downs14–3
CLEQ3 0:53924Field goal17–3
LVQ4 12:08418Punt17–3
CLEQ4 9:21367Touchdown24–3
LVQ4 8:181039Touchdown24–10
CLEQ4 5:1130Punt24–10
LVQ4 4:06620Turnover24–10
CLEQ4 2:10412Punt24–10
LVQ4 0:52337End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shedeur Sanders11/2020911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins16472.92
Dylan Sampson7233.30
Harold Fannin Jr.144.00
Shedeur Sanders1-1-1.00
Jerome Ford1-3-3.00
Malachi Corley1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dylan Sampson23591
Isaiah Bond22580
Harold Fannin Jr.46400
Jerry Jeudy13390
Malachi Corley1180
Cedric Tillman1350

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith30/4428510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty17502.90
Geno Smith382.70
Raheem Mostert122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett45620
Ashton Jeanty88581
Brock Bowers69550
Ian Thomas44360
Tre Tucker310280
Raheem Mostert33180
Michael Mayer11140
Dont'e Thornton Jr.12140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.62