Closing spread
LV -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
LV perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play-0.192
- 35.2%Success rate38.6%
- -0.212EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.304
- 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- -5.66CPOE-0.91
- 33.8%Third-down rate34.1%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.18Points / drive1.25
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. LV are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 11/20 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Dylan Sampson | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Sampson | 2 | 3 | 59 | 1 |
| Isaiah Bond | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 30/44 | 285 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 8 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Brock Bowers | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 3 | 10 | 28 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.62