Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. OAK are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 25/36 | 364 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Montario Hardesty | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 6 | 7 | 116 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.