Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Browns
- OutDimitri PattersonCBAnkle· Limited
- OutRaymond VentroneSCalf· Limited
- OutUsama YoungSHead· DNP
- QuestionableEric HaggSIllness· DNP
- QuestionableJoshua CribbsWRShoulder· Limited
- ProbableAlex SmithTEChest· Limited
- ProbableBrandon WeedenQBHead· Full
- ProbableFrostee RuckerDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableJohnson BademosiCBHip· Full
- ProbableJordan CameronTEGroin· Full
- ProbableShawn LauvaoGArm· Full
- ProbableT.J. WardSKnee· Full
- ProbableTrent RichardsonRBChest/Rib/Finger· Full
Raiders
- OutJack CrawfordDEToe· DNP
- OutRichard SeymourDTKnee· DNP
- OutRolando McClainLBNot Injury Related· DNP
- QuestionableDarren McFaddenRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMike GoodsonRBAnkle· Limited
- DNPMiles BurrisLBIllness
- ProbableTaiwan JonesRBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableCarson PalmerQBright Thumb· Full
- ProbableMarcel ReeceRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableTyvon BranchSNeck· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. OAK are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 10:15 | 7 | 53 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:12 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 4:26 | 12 | 57 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q2 12:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q2 11:14 | 2 | 62 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 10:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| CLE | Q2 8:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 7:12 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| CLE | Q2 4:28 | 6 | 38 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:10 | 8 | 54 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| LV | Q3 9:51 | 10 | 40 | Punt | 13–3 |
| CLE | Q3 4:47 | 5 | 80 | Missed field goal | 13–3 |
| LV | Q3 1:58 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| CLE | Q3 0:17 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q4 11:47 | 7 | 40 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| CLE | Q4 9:31 | 14 | 89 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| LV | Q4 3:27 | 13 | 94 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| CLE | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 25/36 | 364 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Montario Hardesty | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 6 | 7 | 116 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.