2021 · Week 15

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

16·14

Browns

Cleveland

QB Nick Mullens

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

LV -3

Total

41

Model margin

+4.9est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

6.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.014
  • 45.2%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.161EPA / rush+0.015
  • 9.2%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +1.92CPOE-2.26
  • 36.8%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.81
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CLE @ LV24–10CLE
2024 · W4CLE @ LV16–20RAIDERS
2020 · W8LV @ CLE16–6RAIDERS
2018 · W4CLE @ OAK42–45RAIDERS
2015 · W3OAK @ CLE27–20RAIDERS
2014 · W8OAK @ CLE13–23CLE
2012 · W13CLE @ OAK20–17CLE
2011 · W6CLE @ OAK17–24RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
LVQ1 10:531378Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 3:41520Punt7–0
LVQ1 0:46710Punt7–0
CLEQ2 12:3738Punt7–0
LVQ2 10:32529Punt7–0
CLEQ2 7:4938Punt7–0
LVQ2 6:141261Field goal10–0
CLEQ2 0:56832Missed field goal10–0
LVQ3 15:0033Punt10–0
CLEQ3 14:1037Punt10–0
LVQ3 12:02722Turnover10–0
CLEQ3 7:13647Touchdown10–7
LVQ3 4:33952Field goal13–7
CLEQ4 14:4631Punt13–7
LVQ4 13:5539Punt13–7
CLEQ4 12:071590Touchdown13–14
LVQ4 3:45313Turnover13–14
CLEQ4 2:4737Punt13–14
LVQ4 1:50751Field goal16–14

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr25/3823611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs15523.50
Peyton Barber5346.80
Derek Carr372.30
Marcus Mariota133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones69670
Foster Moreau79650
Josh Jacobs34420
Hunter Renfrow35320
Peyton Barber11120
DeSean Jackson13110
Bryan Edwards3481
Daniel Helm11-10

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens20/3014710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb23914.01
D'Ernest Johnson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donovan Peoples-Jones48480
David Njoku35290
Rashard Higgins35240
D'Ernest Johnson44170
Demetric Felton34160
Harrison Bryant22111
Nick Chubb1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

6.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.93