Closing spread
LV -3
Total
41
Model margin
+4.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
6.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.014
- 45.2%Success rate43.7%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.161EPA / rush+0.015
- 9.2%Explosive rate11.2%
- +1.92CPOE-2.26
- 36.8%Third-down rate39.1%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.87Points / drive1.81
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 25/38 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 6 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 7 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Daniel Helm | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 20/30 | 147 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 23 | 91 | 4.0 | 1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.93